Possible scenario
Market Credibility Scare
20% Chance
Investors conclude that the government is moving too slowly or that political constraints will prevent a full fiscal repair. The memory of the 2022 mini-Budget makes UK assets vulnerable to even a modest loss of credibility, though the Bank of England and Treasury are far more alert to market stress than they were under Liz Truss.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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