Possible scenario
Wider Regional War
22% Chance
The drone shootdown becomes the trigger for a direct U.S.-Iran exchange that spreads beyond the Strait. Iran targets U.S. bases or Gulf energy infrastructure, while Washington expands strikes against IRGC and Iranian military assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +6.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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