Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-escalation
24% Chance
Regional mediators move quickly because a sustained Hormuz closure threatens Gulf exporters and Asian importers. Iran may use the drone shootdown to claim deterrence while accepting a narrow off-ramp involving monitored shipping lanes, sanctions talks, or asset-release negotiations.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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