Possible scenario
Calibrated US Response
38% Chance
Washington responds militarily but tries to keep the conflict below the threshold of open war with Iran. The most likely near-term path is a focused operation against IRGC air-defense, drone, and coastal missile assets near the Strait of Hormuz, paired with naval escorts for commercial shipping.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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