Possible scenario
Merz Contains Revolt
40% Chance
The most likely path is that Friedrich Merz survives the immediate shock because the CDU/CSU lacks an obvious consensus replacement and fears making the AfD look like the only stable alternative. He offers a cabinet and policy reset focused on migration, industrial costs, and coalition discipline while trying to buy time before the next federal test.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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