Possible scenario
Coalition Collapse Election
20% Chance
The CDU/CSU-SPD governing arrangement breaks under the combined strain of state defeats, collapsing approval, and AfD polling strength. President Frank-Walter Steinmeier is drawn into the process after a failed confidence vote, making an early federal election the central scenario.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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