Possible scenario
CDU Leadership Challenge
25% Chance
A formal or informal leadership challenge emerges as CDU state premiers conclude that Merz has become an electoral liability. The party tries to avoid a snap election by changing personnel while preserving the federal coalition framework.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.