Possible scenario
Safety hazard disposal
20% Chance
The object could be a legacy munition, construction remnant, or heavy seabed hazard requiring specialist disposal rather than a sabotage inquiry. This would temporarily affect local ferry and freight operations but remain too localized to move global markets meaningfully.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
- Telecommunications -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.