Possible scenario
Federal restrictions emerge
35% Chance
U.S. agencies respond to repeated agent access by issuing temporary restrictions on autonomous browsing of federal websites. The most likely policy response is narrow and operational rather than a full AI ban, focused on access controls, logging, and procurement reviews.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.7%
- Business Services -0.6%
Tickers
- -1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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