Possible scenario
Republican Mail Push Works
30% Chance
Republican messaging around mail voting continues to normalize early ballot use among GOP voters. The Clark County Democratic lead falls further, signaling that 2026 may not follow the old pattern in which mail ballots strongly favored Democrats and Election Day votes favored Republicans.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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