Possible scenario
Late Democratic Rebound
20% Chance
Democratic turnout operations could respond aggressively once the narrowing lead becomes a public warning sign. Clark County's large pool of registered Democrats and union-heavy precincts gives the party room to rebuild its mail-ballot advantage before the deadline.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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