Possible scenario
Democratic Mail Edge Holds
38% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the lower Clark County mail-ballot lead reflects Republican adoption of mail voting rather than a collapse in Democratic turnout. Democrats retain a meaningful Clark County cushion, but the margin is smaller than in 2022 and 2024.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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