Possible scenario
Forensic Exoneration
20% Chance
Underdog could produce audit logs, architecture records, and training documentation showing independent development. Given the technical ambiguity of model-similarity claims, a third-party review may substantially weaken the accusation.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.