Possible scenario
Israeli Resistance Persists
30% Chance
Israel maintains that the second phase of Trump's plan would leave Hamas too much leverage and refuses binding commitments on withdrawal or governance. Egypt keeps the channel open, but the diplomacy becomes a holding pattern.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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