Possible scenario
Iran Track Advances
18% Chance
The Gaza diplomacy becomes linked to a narrower U.S.-Iran de-escalation package, with Egypt pressing Washington to reduce proxy pressure on Gaza and Red Sea routes. A limited framework is more plausible than a comprehensive nuclear accord.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.7%
- Consumer Services +0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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