Possible scenario
US Escorts Intensify
22% Chance
The White House concludes that Iran’s latest language is delaying tactics and leans on CENTCOM to keep lanes open. This raises the chance of military contact but can still stop short of direct US-Iran strikes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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