Possible scenario
Talks Remain Stalled
38% Chance
Washington and Tehran keep indirect channels open, but neither side accepts the other’s sequencing for reopening Hormuz. Iran maintains pressure on shipping while the White House avoids endorsing the rejected seven-day plan.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.8%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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