Possible scenario
Iran-Linked Escalation
25% Chance
Given the earlier UK decision allowing US use of British bases for defensive strikes related to Iran, investigators may examine whether the plot was linked to Iranian state networks or aligned proxies. Public attribution would materially raise diplomatic and military tension, though a direct war escalation remains less likely than a contained response.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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