Possible scenario
GOP Brokers Compromise
40% Chance
House and Senate Republicans absorb Tom Emmer's public criticism and move quickly to limit the political damage. John Thune, Mike Johnson, and Emmer align around a narrower reconciliation path that can pass with minimal defections.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Technology +0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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