Possible scenario
Rama Holds Firm
30% Chance
Rama refuses to step down and relies on the Socialist Party's parliamentary majority, police containment, and time to exhaust the protest movement. The entry of more than 1,300 professors keeps the demonstrations politically damaging, but not yet enough to force an immediate leadership change.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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