Possible scenario
Liquidity Worries Return
20% Chance
A less likely but plausible path is that investors begin treating low SPY volume as a sign of thinner market depth, especially around macro data, month-end rebalancing, or a large options expiration. The impact is still far below a systemic liquidity event, but it can modestly lift volatility and pressure risk assets.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
- Technology -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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