Possible scenario
White House Takes Control
18% Chance
Given the September 2026 order placing NIH grants under White House control, the administration may use the controversy to centralize approval of foreign biomedical awards. This would deepen political oversight of science funding but still fall short of a broad market shock.
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -0.3%
- Business Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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