Possible scenario
Pledge Proves Symbolic
30% Chance
Xi's pledge reduces official exposure but does not stop shipments routed through private suppliers, trading firms, and third-country logistics hubs. This remains plausible because prior sanctions and promises did not prevent fresh China-origin parts from reaching Iranian drone factories.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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