Possible scenario
Managed Compliance
45% Chance
Xi's personal guarantee leads Chinese ministries and customs authorities to slow the most visible drone-part shipments to Iran. This is the most likely path because Beijing has an incentive to avoid a direct clash with Trump while preserving deniability over private networks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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