Possible scenario
Gridlock Overwhelms Appointment
30% Chance
Bailey inherits a Congress already shaped by narrow margins, election-year incentives, and Democratic confidence on the generic ballot. Her appointment changes process but does not overcome the structural gridlock that has defined Trump’s relationship with Congress in 2026.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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