Possible scenario
Bailey Improves Coordination
35% Chance
Katie Bailey uses the Office of Legislative Affairs to tighten daily coordination between President Trump, Speaker Mike Johnson, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune. The appointment modestly improves the White House's ability to count votes and prevent procedural surprises before the midterms.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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