Possible scenario
Talks Continue Inconclusively
35% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the Norway-hosted channel produces no immediate settlement but keeps a U.S.-Russia-Ukraine diplomatic path alive. Kyiv remains wary because U.S. military aid and intelligence ties have sharply weakened, while Moscow has little incentive to offer major concessions quickly.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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