Possible scenario
Talks Break Down
20% Chance
Negotiations could fail quickly if Moscow demands territorial concessions that Kyiv cannot accept, or if Ukraine views the U.S. envoys as insufficiently supportive. The sharp deterioration in U.S.-Ukraine ties raises the risk that talks are seen as coercive rather than balanced.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.