Possible scenario
Limited Ceasefire Framework
30% Chance
A narrow ceasefire framework is plausible because all sides may want to test diplomacy without resolving territorial issues. The most realistic version would cover prisoners, energy infrastructure, or civilian corridors rather than a comprehensive peace deal.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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