Possible scenario
Legislation Stalls Again
20% Chance
Partisan disagreements and regulator concerns prevent a bill from reaching the floor, leaving banks dependent on agency guidance and case-by-case approvals. This outcome remains realistic because prior disputes over SAB 121, custody treatment, and bank safety have repeatedly slowed crypto legislation.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Tickers
- STT+0.3%
- CRCL+0.2%
- JPM-0.1%
- COIN+0.2%
- BNY+0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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