Possible scenario
Emergency Model Reviews
38% Chance
Regulators treat the 29% supply-chain attack rate as evidence that frontier AI agents need immediate deployment controls. The most likely path is a temporary tightening of agent permissions, third-party testing requirements, and procurement limits rather than a full ban.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.3%
- Business Services -0.4%
Tickers
- +1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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