Possible scenario
Wider Civil War
30% Chance
The drone attack becomes part of a broader Tigray offensive after rebels seized airports and declared full war. Fighting expands through Amhara and Afar corridors, while the federal government prioritizes defending Addis Ababa and key supply routes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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