Possible scenario
Negotiated De-Escalation
20% Chance
External pressure from the African Union, IGAD, the United States, and Gulf partners pushes both sides toward talks after the attack on Addis Ababa. Neither side fully trusts the other, but battlefield costs and the risk to the capital create incentives for a pause.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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