Possible scenario
GOP Nationalizes Race
22% Chance
Republicans decide the risk of losing Texas is too large and further nationalize the contest. The campaign becomes a proxy fight over Senate control, with Mitch McConnell-aligned donors, Thune-linked groups, and Trump surrogates trying to discipline Paxton’s operation.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Business Services +0.1%
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.