Possible scenario
Damage Is Contained
34% Chance
Paxton absorbs the criticism over admitting that Washington controls the campaign message, but the episode does not become decisive. Republican voters remain focused on party control of the Senate, Trump’s endorsement, and attacks on James Talarico’s ideology.
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
- Healthcare -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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