Possible scenario
OMB Partly Retreats
20% Chance
The White House may decide that defending the pocket rescission is not worth the legal and political cost, especially after the GAO finding. OMB could release most funds while preserving a narrower legal argument for future executive-budget fights.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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