Possible scenario
Mediation Restores Ceasefire
20% Chance
The African Union, the United States, and regional governments push both sides back toward a ceasefire framework after the battlefield shift. Addis Ababa may prefer mediation if it can negotiate from strength after retaking Mekelle airport.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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