Possible scenario
Insurgency Replaces Offensive
30% Chance
The TPLF accepts that the airport offensive has failed but continues the war through guerrilla attacks, sabotage, and local mobilization. This outcome is plausible because Tigray's terrain and prior conflict experience favor an insurgent fallback if conventional positions are lost.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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