Possible scenario
Federal Control Holds
40% Chance
The Ethiopian National Defense Force consolidates its hold on Mekelle and the airport, forcing TPLF units to pull back from conventional operations. This is the most likely path because the loss of Mekelle airport sharply reduces TPLF mobility and resupply options.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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