Possible scenario
Waiver Becomes Off-Ramp
40% Chance
The 60-day review becomes a diplomatic bridge rather than a short pause. The Trump administration uses the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire and Indian import cuts to justify delaying the 500% tariff mechanism while preserving leverage over Moscow, Beijing and New Delhi.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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