Possible scenario
Penalties Return Selectively
30% Chance
The waiver expires only partly, with the administration using the review to distinguish cooperative buyers from holdouts. India receives credit for cutting Russian crude imports, while China faces a higher probability of secondary penalties if purchases remain elevated.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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