Possible scenario
Congress Narrows Waiver
15% Chance
Lawmakers who backed the Russia oil-buyer sanctions law argue that the president is weakening congressional leverage. The administration keeps the review alive but faces reporting requirements, legal challenges or statutory pressure to justify any extension.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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