Possible scenario
Sustained Rail Campaign
45% Chance
Russia maintains jet-powered Shahed/Geran production near the reported 250-per-month level and concentrates attacks on Ukrainian rail logistics. The campaign raises repair costs and complicates troop and ammunition movements, but Ukraine has already adapted to repeated infrastructure strikes since 2022.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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