Possible scenario
Limited Waiver Compromise
25% Chance
The Pentagon preserves the formal Anthropic ban but creates tightly supervised carveouts for non-lethal intelligence analysis or red-team testing. This outcome reflects the operational value of Claude while trying to satisfy security and guardrail objections.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.2%
- Business Services +0.1%
Tickers
- PLTR-0.2%
- MSFT-0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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