Possible scenario
Investigation Escalates
25% Chance
A more serious scenario is that committee members find enough documentary support to open a formal investigation into the alleged staffer relationships and payment. This would intensify local and national scrutiny, though it would remain a congressional ethics matter rather than a market-moving event.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.