Possible scenario
Humanitarian Channel Opens
27% Chance
International pressure produces some form of negotiated humanitarian access, likely limited and closely controlled by Russia. Moscow may accept a narrow arrangement to reduce reputational costs while retaining filtration power over evacuees.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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