Possible scenario
Confirmation Fight Emerges
18% Chance
Peirce's open seat becomes a partisan fight over crypto, private funds, ESG disclosure, and SEC enforcement. This would not by itself alter monetary or broad macro conditions, but it could raise regulatory uncertainty for digital-asset firms.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
Tickers
- COIN-0.8%
- CRCL-0.5%
- -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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