Possible scenario
Regional Escalation
18% Chance
Iran decides the loss of naval assets requires retaliation beyond the immediate Hormuz fight. US bases, Gulf oil infrastructure or Israeli-linked targets become part of the battlefield, shifting the crisis from a maritime clash to a regional military confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +7.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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