Possible scenario
Limited Naval Conflict
30% Chance
The conflict remains mostly maritime, with no formal war declaration, but missile, drone and mine threats keep Hormuz traffic impaired. Washington focuses on suppressing IRGC coastal capabilities while Tehran tries to impose costs without triggering regime-threatening escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +5.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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