Possible scenario
Convoy De-Escalation
40% Chance
Washington treats the sinking of Iranian naval assets as restoring freedom of navigation rather than opening a wider war. Iran continues to reject the US account publicly but avoids large follow-on attacks while Oman, Qatar and China press Tehran to step back.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.